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The Models
From Jimmy Johnson's clipboard to modern analytics — a guide to every major draft pick value model and how they stack up.
An NFL draft value chart assigns a numeric point value to each pick in the draft, making it possible to compare trade packages objectively. Instead of debating whether two second-round picks outweigh one first-rounder, you can just add up the numbers.
Teams, analysts, and fans have used these charts for decades to evaluate trade fairness, negotiate deals, and understand the true cost of moving up or down the board. The challenge is that no single chart tells the whole story — different models are built on different assumptions about what draft picks are really worth.
PickSwap puts all five major models in one app so you can see how a trade looks through every lens at once.
Five Models
Each model reflects a different era and philosophy of how to measure a draft pick's worth.
Jimmy Johnson Chart
The original · Early 1990s
The Jimmy Johnson chart is the grandfather of all draft value models. It was developed by Jimmy Johnson and his staff during his tenure as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, and quickly became the unofficial industry standard across the NFL.
The chart is famously top-heavy. The #1 overall pick is assigned 3,000 points, and values drop steeply through the early rounds before leveling off. This steep curve reflects the belief that elite picks — especially in the top 10 — carry enormous, outsized potential value.
Decades later, it remains the most widely recognized reference point in trade discussions, even as more data-driven alternatives have emerged.
3,000
Points for pick #1
1990s
Era of origin
Rich Hill Model
Market-based · Modern era
The Rich Hill model takes a market-based approach to pick valuation, built from analysis of what teams actually paid for picks in real NFL trades. Rather than prescribing what a pick should be worth, it reflects what the market has historically said picks are worth.
Compared to the Jimmy Johnson chart, the Rich Hill model tends to be less extreme at the top and more generous to mid-round picks. This makes it useful for modeling trades where one team is packaging multiple mid-rounders — scenarios where the classic chart often undervalues the package.
It's become a popular alternative among analysts who prefer models grounded in actual transaction data over older conventional wisdom.
Trade
Data-driven
Mid-round
Friendlier to
Fitzgerald-Spielberger
Analytics-driven · Modern era
The Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart is an analytics-driven model built around actual on-field production data. It attempts to quantify draft pick value based on what players selected at each slot historically contribute to their teams in terms of performance — not just what teams paid for those picks in trades.
The Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart is notably flatter than the Jimmy Johnson model — pick #32 is worth over 40% of pick #1, compared to roughly 20% under Jimmy Johnson. This makes it more generous to mid-round picks and reflects the analytical view that teams systematically over-pay to move up.
It's a go-to model for analysts who want pick valuations rooted in production outcomes rather than market prices.
Production
Basis
Top-pick
Emphasizes
Harvard HSAC Model
Academic · Harvard Sports Analysis Collective
The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective (HSAC) model brings a rigorous academic lens to draft pick valuation. Developed through statistical research on NFL draft outcomes, it aims to produce the most mathematically defensible value curve possible.
The HSAC model is notable for its methodical approach — using regression analysis and historical performance data to build a smooth, well-calibrated value curve across all seven rounds of the draft.
It tends to produce values that differ meaningfully from the Jimmy Johnson chart in the mid-to-late rounds, making it a revealing alternative when analyzing deals that hinge on Day 2 and Day 3 picks.
Academic
Approach
7 rounds
Full coverage
Baldwin Surplus Value
Surplus-based · Ben Baldwin, 2023
The Baldwin Surplus Value chart is the most analytically rigorous modern model available in PickSwap. Developed by Ben Baldwin and published in 2023, it takes a fundamentally different approach: instead of measuring raw pick value, it measures surplus value — the difference between what a player produces on the field and what his rookie contract costs the team.
The result is counterintuitive but revealing: picks #12 and #14 peak at the highest surplus value, while pick #1 scores lower. Top picks are expensive under the rookie wage scale relative to their expected production, while mid-first-round picks hit the sweet spot of high production at controlled cost.
This model is built on draft classes 2011–2020, uses second contracts as a production proxy, and excludes quarterbacks to avoid positional salary distortion. The underlying code and data are fully open source via the nflverse project.
Pick 12
Peak surplus pick
Surplus
Basis
Why It Matters
Each model tells a different story. The smartest trade analysis uses all of them.
Different Results
The same trade can look fair on one chart and lopsided on another. Knowing the difference helps you spot where assumptions diverge.
Different Eras
Older charts were built before the analytics era. Modern models incorporate data that simply didn't exist when the classics were created.
Different Philosophies
Market price vs. on-field production vs. statistical research — each methodology reflects a distinct view of what a pick is actually worth.
Better Insight
When all five charts agree, you can be confident. When they disagree, you've found the interesting part of the debate.
FAQ
Which chart do NFL teams actually use?
Most teams have their own proprietary models, but the Jimmy Johnson chart has historically been the most common reference point in trade negotiations. Many front offices use it as a starting point while applying their own adjustments based on internal analytics. Look for the ability to create your own value list in a future version of PickSwap.
Is the Jimmy Johnson chart still accurate?
It remains a useful baseline but shows its age in certain areas. The chart was built before the modern era of data-driven roster building, and most analysts believe it over-values the very top picks and under-values quality mid-round selections relative to how the current market actually trades.
What's the difference between a market-based and production-based chart?
A market-based chart (like Rich Hill) is built from what teams have historically paid in actual trades — it reflects the real-world price of picks. A production-based chart (like Fitzgerald-Spielberger) is built from what players selected at each slot actually produced on the field — it reflects the theoretical value of picks based on outcomes. A surplus-based chart (like Baldwin Surplus Value) goes a step further, measuring the difference between on-field production and what each pick costs under the rookie wage scale — revealing which slots deliver the best return on investment.
Do these charts account for future picks?
The charts themselves assign value based on draft slot. Future picks — picks in upcoming draft years — add another layer of complexity because the draft slot isn't yet known. PickSwap includes up to three years of future picks and a slot value adjustment that lets you dial in each future pick's value based on its projected draft position.
Can I compare all five charts on the same trade?
Yes — that's exactly what PickSwap is built for. Switch between Jimmy Johnson, Rich Hill, Fitzgerald-Spielberger, Harvard HSAC, and Baldwin Surplus Value with a single tap to see how the same trade scores on every model.
Draft Tools
Draft Capital Calculator
Rank all 32 NFL teams by total draft capital — with any of these five value models. Drill into every team's picks.
Draft Tools
Historical NFL Player Trade Pick Value Reference
See what teams paid in draft capital for players across the last decade — using any of the five major value models.
Model any NFL draft trade with real pick order and all five value charts — free for iPhone.